鍛壓機床行業的形勢良好 大鍛件產量過剩 鍛(duan)壓機床行業(ye)上(shang)半年(nian)情況良(liang)好，基本實(shi)現穩中求勝。大鍛(duan)件產量嚴(yan)重過剩(sheng)，預計(ji)下半年(nian)需求偏弱。 2014年上(shang)半(ban)年，大(da)(da)鍛(duan)件行(xing)(xing)業(ye)總體平穩，基本實現了(le)穩中(zhong)有進。由于大(da)(da)鍛(duan)件行(xing)(xing)業(ye)產能嚴重(zhong)過剩，預測下(xia)半(ban)年行(xing)(xing)業(ye)需求仍然偏弱，行(xing)(xing)業(ye)將維持平穩增(zeng)長態勢。 通(tong)過(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)國鍛壓協會大鍛件理事會十(shi)家(jia)成員單位：中(zhong)(zhong)國第(di)一重(zhong)(zhong)型機(ji)械集(ji)團(tuan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、中(zhong)(zhong)國第(di)二重(zhong)(zhong)型機(ji)械集(ji)團(tuan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、上海(hai)重(zhong)(zhong)型機(ji)器(qi)廠有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、中(zhong)(zhong)信(xin)重(zhong)(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)機(ji)械股(gu)(gu)份(fen)有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、通(tong)裕重(zhong)(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)股(gu)(gu)份(fen)有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、內蒙古北方重(zhong)(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業集(ji)團(tuan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、太(tai)原(yuan)重(zhong)(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)股(gu)(gu)份(fen)有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、中(zhong)(zhong)原(yuan)特鋼股(gu)(gu)份(fen)有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、江陰南工(gong)(gong)(gong)鍛造有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、煙臺(tai)臺(tai)海(hai)瑪努爾核(he)電(dian)設備(bei)股(gu)(gu)份(fen)有(you)限(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)上半(ban)(ban)年(nian)經(jing)濟(ji)數(shu)據，可(ke)以(yi)大致了(le)解大鍛件行(xing)業2014年(nian)上半(ban)(ban)年(nian)運行(xing)情況。 2014年(nian)1-6月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)，大鍛件產(chan)量(liang)、總銷售量(liang)變(bian)化趨(qu)勢(shi)一致。變(bian)化趨(qu)勢(shi)：1-2月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)呈下降(jiang)趨(qu)勢(shi)，3-5月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)達到最(zui)高(gao)點(dian)，6月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)又(you)微(wei)弱下降(jiang)。其中，3、4、5、6月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)的(de)都高(gao)于(yu)2月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)。鍛造企(qi)業2013年(nian)、2014年(nian)1-6月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)每月(yue)鍛件產(chan)量(liang)進行對比，除三月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)同(tong)比產(chan)量(liang)降(jiang)低(di)以外，其余月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)均呈現增長(chang)態勢(shi)。其中，一月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(fen)增長(chang)速度最(zui)快(kuai)。 2014年1-6月(yue)份(fen)，大(da)鍛件(jian)行業總銷售額(e)2月(yue)份(fen)總銷售額(e)處(chu)于最低點，3-6月(yue)份(fen)逐(zhu)月(yue)增(zeng)加，在6月(yue)份(fen)達(da)到最高點。與2013年上半年、2013年下半年做比較，大(da)鍛件(jian)行業總銷售額(e)有所增(zeng)長。 總體來看，2014年上(shang)半年大(da)鍛件(jian)(jian)行(xing)業(ye)產(chan)量、銷(xiao)量都有所增長。然而，大(da)鍛件(jian)(jian)產(chan)品同質低價競爭惡劣，導致行(xing)業(ye)整體利潤下降(jiang)，其中船(chuan)用曲軸(zhou)毛坯鍛件(jian)(jian)利潤極低，甚(shen)至銷(xiao)售(shou)價格低于成本(ben)。 上(shang)半年持有(you)核電鍛件訂(ding)單的企業、能夠生產(chan)特定產(chan)品的企業、管(guan)理機制靈活能緊跟市場變化(hua)的企業發展勢頭良好，處于盈利(li)狀態。部(bu)分大型國有(you)企業仍處于虧損狀態，不過企業虧損程(cheng)度有(you)所降低。 我國大(da)鍛件行(xing)業(ye)產(chan)(chan)能嚴(yan)重過(guo)剩，只(zhi)是針(zhen)對(dui)(dui)低端產(chan)(chan)品市(shi)場(chang)。對(dui)(dui)于大(da)鍛件中、高(gao)端產(chan)(chan)品市(shi)場(chang)，仍然長期被國外大(da)鍛件企(qi)業(ye)占據。如何通過(guo)大(da)鍛件共(gong)性(xing)技術研究、特定產(chan)(chan)品流(liu)程(cheng)再造、嚴(yan)格過(guo)程(cheng)控制等有(you)(you)效措施，富有(you)(you)成效的(de)開發大(da)鍛件中、高(gao)端產(chan)(chan)品市(shi)場(chang)，將是我國大(da)鍛件企(qi)業(ye)一(yi)項長期持(chi)久的(de)工程(cheng)。